Airbus Forecasts Demand for 42,000 New Aircraft.
Due to urbanisation, economic expansion, and the growing middle class worldwide, Airbus has predicted that the demand for air travel will continue to rise over the long term, requiring 42,060 additional passenger and freighter aircraft between 2026 and 2045.
According to the outlook, which is included in the company’s 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF), over the next 20 years, global passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9%. This growth will be bolstered by 2.6% GDP growth, an increase of 1.3 billion urban residents, and the addition of 1.4 billion middle-class consumers, the group most likely to travel by air.
Global air travel is predicted to more than double by 2045, with about 10 billion people per year, according to Airbus.
According to the forecast, urbanisation is shifting toward smaller cities, which will increase demand for additional city-pair connections as more economically viable routes are made possible by more efficient planes. Longer-range aircraft like the A321XLR, A330neo, and A350 are opening new long-haul routes, while aircraft like the A220 and A321neo are enabling direct flights between destinations that previously could not support nonstop operations, according to Airbus.
Additionally, the business anticipates that as connectivity grows beyond conventional hub-to-hub routes, aviation networks will become more decentralised. Riga-Tenerife, Melbourne-Alice Springs, Lisbon-Recife, Dublin-Nashville, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur, and Taipei-Phoenix are among the examples given.
According to Airbus, its current order backlog of about 9,000 aircraft reflects the changing market demand. The larger A321neo and A321XLR, which the company claims are especially well-suited to service growing city pairs, make up more than 70% of the backlog for the A320 Family.
The estimate also indicates that the Asia-Pacific area would continue to see a change in aviation demand due to robust economic growth in nations like Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and India. According to Airbus, shifting traffic patterns are a result of both rising international migration and an increase in travel for friends and family (VFR).
Of the 42,060 aircraft anticipated to be delivered over the next 20 years, 19,820 will replace older aircraft, and 22,240 will be needed to support traffic growth. According to Airbus, single-aisle aircraft will make up 81% of deliveries, with widebody aircraft making up the remaining 19%.
According to the business, as airlines replace ageing fleets with more fuel-efficient and emission-free aircraft, fleet renewal will continue to be a significant driver of aircraft demand. The estimate states that the proportion of next-generation aircraft in the world’s fleet will rise from approximately 39% in 2026 to almost 100% by 2045.
